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Instructions
Read the categories, trends, and categories related to each section to get a picture of the current state and projected future of that category.
On a separate document write: One ‘best case’ scenario to emerge and why. Place an asterisk (*) in front of any critical point. One ‘worst case’ scenario to emerge and why. Place an asterisk (*) in front of any critical point. One ‘most likely’ scenario to emerge and why. Place an asterisk (*) in front of any critical point.
Rank each scenario from 1-10 in terms of its importance to the future of Indiana. 1 being not important and 10 being critically important.
Return your results to Bruce LaDuke at knowledgemachine@hotmail.com.
Results will be compiled into a single document and sent back out to reviewers for a second wave of comments. The intent is to achieve group near consensus on a single vision for the state.
Note: It is acceptable to opt out of a category (e.g., economics) if you don't feel like you have enough expertise to contrbute or to add your own category if you feel that some area is not being represented.
Economics
Categories:
| Global Trends:
The economy of the developed world is on path to grow for at least the next five years. Any interruptions will be relatively short lived. The global economy is growing more integrated. On average, institutions are growing more transparent in their operations, and more accountable for their misdeeds. Institutions are undergoing a bimodal distribution: The big get bigger, the small survive, and the mid-sized are squeezed out. Specialization continues to spread throughout industry and the professions. Services are the fastest-growing sector of the global economy. Women’s salaries are approaching equality with men’s—but very slowly. The traditional age of retirement is losing its significance. Labor unions are losing their power to secure rights for workers and to shape public policy in regard to workplace issues. Second and third careers are becoming common, as more people make mid-life changes in occupation. The work ethic is vanishing. Two-income couples are the norm in most of the industrialized lands, though in the U.S. the trend toward greater employment among women is slowing. Generation X and the Millennial’s will have major effects in the future. Time is becoming the world’s most precious commodity. More entrepreneurs start new businesses every year. Information-based organizations are quickly displacing the old command-and-control model of management. A typical large business in 2015 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1995, and about one-third the number of managers. Government regulations will continue to take up a growing portion of the manager’s time and effort. Multinational corporations are uniting the world, and growing more exposed to its risks. International exposure includes a greater risk of terrorist attack. Consumers increasingly demand social responsibility from companies and each other.
| Indiana Trends:
Substantial growth and success in the life sciences sector. See:
Life Sciences Statistics for Indiana Escalating property tax. See here. Small, but steady growth in agri-tourism. [Add more Indiana Trends]
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News and Publications:
Education
Categories:
| Global Trends:
Education and training are expanding throughout society. Specialization continues to spread throughout industry and the professions. Institutions are undergoing a bimodal distribution: The big get bigger, the small survive, and the mid-sized are squeezed out. Specialization continues to spread throughout industry and the professions.
Stats published by Indiana Future Conference:
60% of all new jobs will require skills possessed by only 20% of the current workforce. - U.S. Department of Education Nearly 30% of all students do not graduate from high school, and only one-third of high school graduates have the necessary skills to succeed.
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 85% of current jobs are considered "skilled," requiring education beyond high school, and 40% of all new jobs will require at least an associate's degree. - Crisis at the Core. ACT Policy Report, 2004
| Indiana Trends:
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Environmental
Categories:
| Global Trends:
People around the world are becoming increasingly sensitive to environmental issues as the consequences of neglect, indifference, and ignorance become ever more apparent. Water shortages will be a continuing problem for much of the world. Recycling has delayed the “garbage glut” that threatened to overflow the world’s landfills, but the threat has not passed simply because it has not yet arrived. Industrial development trumps environmental concerns in many parts of the world. Though species extinction may not be as rapid as once believed, loss of biodiversity will be a growing worry for decades to come. Continuing urbanization will aggravate most environmental and social problems.
| Indiana Trends:
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Technology
Categories:
| Global Trends:
Technology is creating a knowledge-dependent global society. Technology increasingly dominates both the economy and society. Research and development play a growing role in the economy. The United States is ceding its scientific and technical leadership to other countries. Advances in transportation technology and practice will make travel and shipping faster, cheaper, and safer, by land, sea, and air. The pace of technological change accelerates with each new generation of discoveries and applications. Important medical advances will continue to appear almost daily. The Internet continues to grow, but at a slower pace. Advanced communications technologies are changing the way we live and work.
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Socio/Political
Categories:
Communities Life expectancy Literacy rate Democracy level Health Care Status of youth Status of women Health/Fitness Human equity/Diversity Crime Value change Security Power levels (local, state, region, nation, global)
| Global Trends:
Militant Islam continues to spread and gain power. Societal values are changing rapidly. Young people place increasing importance on economic success, which they have come to expect. Tourism, vacationing, and travel (especially international) will continue to grow in the next decade and beyond. The physical-culture and personal-health movements will remain strong, but far from universal. Consumerism is still growing. The women’s equality movement is losing the last of its significance, thanks largely to past successes. Family structures are becoming more diverse. Privacy, once a defining right for Americans, is dying quickly.
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Demographic
Categories:
| Global Trends:
The world’s population will grow to 9.2 billion by 2050. The population of the developed world is living longer. The elderly population is growing dramatically throughout the world. Mass migration is redistributing the world’s population. Despite some xenophobic reactions to immigrants, there is growing acceptance of diversity. However, this is subject to local interruptions and reversals.
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Food and Agriculture
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| Global Trends:
| Indiana Trends:
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Energy
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| Global Trends:
Despite efforts to develop alternative sources of energy, oil consumption is still rising rapidly. Contrary to popular belief, the world is not about to run out of oil. Oil prices are stable around $45 per barrel when not perturbed by political or economic instability. Growing competition from other energy sources also will help to limit the price of oil.
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